Footage of a poorly polar bear went viral in December. Emaciated, it stumbled across a green Arctic landscape without a speck of snow or ice in sight. Media outlets seized on the video as an example of how climate change is killing its poster child. But behind the headlines is an awkward question: have climate change activists chosen the wrong mascot? The International Union for Conservation of Nature has long considered polar bears vulnerable to extinction. In May 2008, the US raised its own listing to threatened. The decision made international headlines and helped the polar bear achieve its iconic status in climate change campaigns. The rationale for concern is sound. In the past decade, Arctic temperatures have risen faster than models predicted and the ice has vanished faster. Logically, the polar bear population should have crashed. It hasn't. For a lot of populations, the trends are uncertain at best. Counting white bears spread across a vast and still mostly white landscape is tricky.
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