Resumen de Mining Indaba '16: : We've yet to hit rock bottom, says Baker & McKenzie

Industrial Minerals

• "Nobody wants to be the one who gives ground, as that may be letting their competitors in," one attendee at this year's Mining Indaba told IM. "The problem is, this strategy means running a company into the ground before giving up, to a point where nobody will want to buy or revive it in the future." Since then, prices have not rebounded to more than $300/tonne. "Potash prices have not recovered to reach the $400/tonne mark (FOB Vancouver)," [Smith] said. "But at $240/tonne, I believe that the market had bottomed out. Potash is an elastic commodity and consumption is sensitive to price. In general, for every $50/tonne increase in potash prices, we see demand decline by 1.1m tonnes." "Overall, growth in potash demand is expected to be moderate compared to supply," Smith said. "I expect consumption to reach 56.9m tonnes by 2020, leaving the market with an overall higher surplus than currently." In an oversupplied market, only those producers that have long-term supply agreements in place are expected to be successful, Smith said.