What role will climate change play in EU agricultural markets?: An integrated assessment taking into account carbon fertilization effects

Pilar Martinez ^[1] ; María Blanco ^[1] ; Benjamin Van Doorslaer ^[2] ; Fabien Ramos ^[3] ; Andrej Ceglar ^[3]
1. [1] Universidad Politécnica de Madrid
  
  Universidad Politécnica de Madrid
  
  Madrid, España
2. [2] European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Sevilla, España
3. [3] European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italia
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Localización: Spanish journal of agricultural research, ISSN-e 2171-9292, ISSN 1695-971X, Vol. 15, Nº. 3, 2017
Idioma: inglés
Enlaces
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Resumen
- Recent studies point to climate change being one of the long-term drivers of agricultural market uncertainty. To advance in the understanding of the influence of climate change on future agricultural market developments, we compared a baseline scenario for the year 2030 with alternative simulation scenarios that differ regarding: (1) emission scenarios; (2) climate projections; and (3) the consideration of carbon fertilization effects on crop growth. For each simulation scenario, the CAPRI model provides global and EU-wide impacts of climate change on agricultural markets. Results showed that climate change would considerably affect agrifood markets up to 2030. Nevertheless, market-driven adaptation strategies (production intensification, trade adjustments) would soften the impact of yield shocks on supply and demand. As a result, regional changes in production would be lower than foreseen by other studies focused on supply effects.