Application of gray theory in settlement forecast of rock-fill highway embankment

• Autores: X. Wang, W. Qin, M.C. Wang, Z. Wang
• Localización: Bearing capacity of roads, railways and airfields: proceedings of the 8th International Conference on the Bearing Capacity of Roads, Railways and Airfields, Champaign, Illinois, USA, June 29-July 2, 2009 / Erol Tutulumluer (dir.), Imad L. Al-Qadi (dir.), Vol. 1, 2009, ISBN 9780415804325, págs. 581-587
• Idioma: inglés
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• Resumen

  • The gray theory was used to forecast the future settlement of a rock-fill highway embankment based on the current settlement data. The monitored embankment settlement data were first compiled and analyzed with regard to their relation with time. The results of analysis showed strong relation between the two, and the relation fitted a negative exponential function fairly well. The unambiguous trend of settlement increase with time made it possible to use the gray system theory together with the current settlement data to forecast the future embankment settlement. The monitored settlement database was then used to develop an equal time interval GM(1,1) model of the gray system theory. Later, the model parameters were optimized by means of the least-square method. The results of study showed that the optimized model was able to forecast the settlement of the rock-fill highway embankment under study reasonably well.