Predicting hotel occupancies with public data: An application of OECD indices as leading indicators

Tang, Candy Mei Fung ^[2] ; Brian King ^[1] ; Stephen Pratt ^[1]
1. [1] Hong Kong Polytechnic University
  
  Hong Kong Polytechnic University
  
  RAE de Hong Kong (China)
2. [2] University of Macau
  
  University of Macau
  
  RAE de Macao (China)
Localización: Tourism economics: the business and finance of tourism and recreation, ISSN 1354-8166, Vol. 23, Nº. 5, 2017, págs. 1096-1113
Idioma: inglés
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Resumen
- This study demonstrates the value of using readily available Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) indicators to estimate hotel occupancy trends in a particular territory (Hong Kong) drawing upon almost four decades of data (1972–2010). The indicators predict the economic climate at global, regional and national levels by providing comprehensive statistically based economic information. They should be of particular benefit for resource-constrained small and/or independent hotel operations for whom accurate occupancy predictions facilitate a more targeted approach to strategic investments. Using the OECD indicators offers hoteliers an alternative to acquiring expensive data and/or consultant inputs. The article shows the merit of OECD composite indicators generally and of the consumer confidence index in particular as publicly available and reliable data which can provide hoteliers with early signals about shifting demand. It contributes to tourism economics by demonstrating the merit of indices as a supplement to both established demand forecasts and as an input to hotel revenue management systems.