About knowledge and responsibility in probabilistic seismic risk management

• Autores: Pasquale Erto, Massimiliano Giorgio, Iunio Iervolino
• Localización: Seismological Research Letters, ISSN 0895-0695, ISSN-e 1938-2057, Vol. 87, Nº. 5, 2016, págs. 1161-1166
• Idioma: inglés
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• Resumen

  • In seismic risk management, apart from assessment, it is also necessary to develop decision-making strategies that are based on evaluating the probability of the occurrence of earthquakes, their consequences, and the effect of possible mitigation actions.

    There is a close connection between the knowledge level of the analyst and the resulting probabilistic evaluations, which should be considered correct if they incorporate all available information. Knowledge, probability, and loss are the key concepts in a state-of-the-art approach to risk estimation and management.

    This article, after reviewing the concepts of risk-based decision making and the possible interpretations of probability, discusses the importance of entrusting seismic risk assessment to experts on the phenomenon who are also knowledgeable regarding probability theory, and how these experts should combine their expert knowledge with probability theory, which is related to the responsibility of the seismic risk analyst.