Identification of Slowdowns and Accelerations for the Euro Area Economy

• Autores: Olivier Darné, Laurent Ferrara
• Localización: Oxford bulletin of economics and statistics, ISSN 0305-9049, Vol. 73, Nº. 3, 2011, págs. 335-364
• Idioma: inglés
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• Resumen

  • Business cycle analyses have proved to be helpful to practitioners in assessing current economic conditions and anticipating upcoming fluctuations. In this article, we focus on the acceleration cycle in the euro area, namely the peaks and troughs of the growth rate which delimit the slowdown and acceleration phases of the economy. Our aim is twofold: first, we put forward a reference turning point chronology of this cycle on a monthly basis, based on gross domestic product and industrial production indices. We consider both euro area aggregate level and country-specific cycles for the six main countries of the zone. Second, we come up with a new turning point indicator, based on business surveys carefully watched by central banks and short-term analysts, to follow in real-time the fluctuations of the acceleration cycle.