Are Short-lived Jobs Stepping Stones to Long-Lasting Jobs?

• Autores: Bart Cockx, Matteo Picchio
• Localización: Oxford bulletin of economics and statistics, ISSN 0305-9049, Vol. 74, Nº. 5, 2012, págs. 646-675
• Idioma: inglés
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• Resumen

  • This article assesses whether short-lived jobs (lasting one quarter or less and involuntarily ending in unemployment) are stepping stones to long-lasting jobs (enduring 1 year or more) for Belgian long-term unemployed school-leavers. We proceed in two steps. First, we estimate labour market trajectories in a multi-spell duration model that incorporates lagged duration and lagged occurrence dependence. Second, in a simulation we find that (fe)male school-leavers accepting a short-lived job are, within 2 years, 13.4 (9.5) percentage points more likely to find a long-lasting job than in the counterfactual in which they reject short-lived jobs.