The poststagnation stage for mature tourism areas: A mathematical modeling process
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[1] Universidad de Murcia
Universidad de Murcia
Murcia, España
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- Localización: Tourism economics: the business and finance of tourism and recreation, ISSN 1354-8166, Vol. 23, Nº. Extra 2, 2017 (Ejemplar dedicado a: Cultural tourism and sustainable urban development), págs. 387-402
- Idioma: inglés
- Texto completo no disponible (Saber más ...)
- Dialnet Métricas: 1 Cita
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Resumen
The tourism area life cycle (TALC) model of Butler explains the temporal evolution of a tourism resort. Lundtorp and Wanhill find that the logistic growth model represents the first phases of the TALC model. However, since the logistic model assumes a fixed tourism market ceiling, it fails to explain the poststagnation stage, where rejuvenation, decline, or any other intermediate possibility may arise. Taking into account the data of passenger flows to Bornholm from 1912 to 2001 collected by Lundtorp and Wanhill, the authors find that the superposition of several logistic growth models fits better with these data. Then they propose a multilogistic growth model, where investment or innovation in the tourism sector boosts the addition of new logistic curves which superpose the old ones. The continuous birth and superposition of these new life cycles is not free; it requires the purposive effort of entrepreneurs and governments seeking new markets and the improvement of infrastructures.
