Forecasting agricultural production using co-integration analysis

• Autores: Stilianos Alexiadis
• Localización: Land use policy: The International Journal Covering All Aspects of Land Use, ISSN 0264-8377, ISSN-e 1873-5754, Nº. 61, 2017, págs. 466-474
• Idioma: inglés
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• Resumen

  • A forecasting method, easily understood and applied by administrators/policy-makers, is developed in this paper. Based on a simple, but quite realistic assumption, that production in a given region ‘pulls’ or ‘shapes’ the volume of production nationally a co-integration forecasting method is proposed in the paper. Using data from administrative regions, the empirical analysis suggests that the property of co-integration can be used to forecast agricultural production in the short-run.