Skewness in expected macro fundamentals and the predictability of equity returns: : Evidence and theory

• Autores: Riccardo Colacito, Eric Ghysels, Jinghan Meng, Wasin Siwasarit
• Localización: Review of Financial Studies, ISSN-e 1465-7368, Vol. 29, Nº. 8, 2016, págs. 2069-2109
• Idioma: inglés
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• Resumen

  • We document that the first and third cross-sectional moments of the distribution of GDP growth rates made by professional forecasters can predict equity excess returns, a finding that is robust to controlling for a large set of well-established predictive factors. We show that introducing time-varying skewness in the distribution of expected growth prospects in an otherwise standard endowment economy can substantially increase the model-implied equity Sharpe ratios, and produce a large amount of fluctuation in equity risk premiums.