Beyond the optimistic curse: : A new multiscenario approach to debt sustainability assessment

• Autores: Bassem Kamar, Damyana Bakardzhieva
• Localización: Emerging Markets Finance & Trade, ISSN-e 1558-0938, Vol. 52, Nº. 1, 2016, págs. 110-122
• Idioma: inglés
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• Resumen

  • While a careful and accurate debt sustainability assessment (DSA) is crucial for an efficient macroeconomic management, the most widely used framework introduced by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) suffers from several drawbacks that render its results overoptimistic and misleading. In this article, we correct the methodology by demonstrating how policy makers can develop country-specific “intermediate” forecasts of the determinants of debt dynamics, in addition to coherent “optimistic” and “pessimistic” scenarios. Our application to the case of Egypt illustrates that the debt-to-GDP ratio could increase to more than 100 percent by 2015, in contrast with the 61 percent projected by the IMF in 2010