Scenarios for a 2 °C world: : a trade-linked input–output model with high sector detail

• Autores: Arjan de Koning, Gjalt Huppes, Sebastiaan Deetman, Arnold Tukker
• Localización: Climate Policy, ISSN-e 1752-7457, ISSN 1752-7457, Vol. 16, Nº. 3, 2016, págs. 301-317
• Idioma: inglés
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• Resumen

  • In this study a scenario model is used to examine if foreseen technological developments are capable of reducing CO2 emissions in 2050 to a level consistent with United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) agreements, which aim at maximizing the temperature rise to 2 °C compared to pre-industrial levels. The model is based on a detailed global environmentally extended supply–use table (EE SUT) for the year 2000, called EXIOBASE. This global EE SUT allows calculating how the final demand in each region drives activities in production sectors, and hence related CO2 emissions, in each region. Using this SUT framework, three scenarios have been constructed for the year 2050. The first is a business-as-usual scenario (BAU), which takes into account population, economic growth, and efficiency improvements. The second is a techno-scenario (TS), adding feasible and probable climate mitigation technologies to the BAU scenario. The third is the towards-2-degrees scenario (2DS), with a demand shift or growth reduction scenario added to the TS to create a 2 °C scenario. The emission results of the three scenarios are roughly in line with outcomes of typical scenarios from integrated assessment models. Our approach indicates that the 2 °C target seems difficult to reach with advanced CO2 emission reduction technologies alone.