Combining national and constituency polling for forecasting

• Chris Hanretty ^[1] ; Ben Lauderdale ; Nick Vivyan ^[2]
  1. [1] University of East Anglia

     University of East Anglia

     Norwich District, Reino Unido

     
  2. [2] Durham University

     Durham University

     Reino Unido

     
• Localización: Electoral Studies: An international Journal, ISSN 0261-3794, Nº 41, 2016, págs. 239-243
• Idioma: inglés
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• Dialnet Métricas: 1 Cita
• Resumen

  • We describe a method for forecasting British general elections by combining national and constituency polling. We reconcile national and constituency estimates through a new swing model.