Identifying strategic voting in two-round elections

• Autores: Áron Kiss
• Localización: Electoral Studies: An international Journal, ISSN 0261-3794, Nº 40, 2015, págs. 127-135
• Idioma: inglés
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• Resumen

  • This paper proposes a new method to analyze strategic voting in ‘wasted vote’ situations. Two-round elections, in which the second round features three candidates, provide an ideal testing ground since the first round offers precise baseline measurement of the support for the third-place candidate. Estimations are conducted on 403 single-member district races from six general elections in Hungary. It is estimated that if the first-round vote share difference between the two leading candidates becomes smaller by one percentage point, the number of votes the third-place candidate receives in the second round diminishes by 1.4 percent. The effect is estimated to be strongest in 2010, while no strategic voting is found in the first democratic election in 1990.