Cognitive reflection predicts real-life decision outcomes, but not over and above personality and decision-making styles

• Autores: Marie Juanchich, Chris Dewberry, Miroslav Sirota, Sunitha Narendran
• Localización: Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, ISSN-e 1099-0771, Vol. 29, Nº. 1, 2016, págs. 52-59
• Idioma: inglés
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• Resumen

  • The Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT), designed to assess the ability to inhibit intuition to process a problem analytically, predicts people's performance in many normative judgement and decision-making tasks (e.g., Bayesian reasoning, conjunction fallacy and ratio bias). However, how the CRT predicts normative decision-making performance is unclear, and little is known about the extent to which the CRT predicts real-life decision outcomes. We investigate the role of the CRT in predicting real-life decision outcomes and examine whether the CRT predicts real-life decision outcomes after controlling for two related individual differences: the Big Five personality traits and decision-making styles. Our results show that greater CRT scores predict positive real-life decision outcomes measured by the Decision Outcome Inventory. However, the effect size was small, and the relationship became non-significant after statistically controlling for personality and decision-making styles. We discuss the limited predictive role of cognitive reflection in real-life decision-making outcomes, along with the roles of personality and decision-making styles