Marzieh Reisi, Lu Aye, Abbas Rajabifard, Tuan Ngo
This research study explores three urban planning scenarios for Melbourne, Australia in 2030 and their implications for transport sustainability. As part of the analyses, a transport sustainability index, derived from 10 sustainability indicators, was developed and applied to compare the scenarios. A base-case scenario, an activity-centres scenario, and a fringe-focus scenario were used to consider compact to expanded urban development patterns. The activity-centres scenario, which favours compact development patterns, had the highest transport sustainability index. In contrast, the fringe-focus scenario that significantly expands urban development in the fringe resulted in a lower transport sustainability index. The results of scenario analysis would influence decisions regarding urban development in 2030.
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