Resumen de Efectividad de la política fiscal sobre la producción y la inequidad en Colombia: 1990-2006
- español
Este documento tiene como objetivo identificar los efectos dinámicos de la política fiscal sobre la producción y la distribución del ingreso en Colombia para el periodo 1990-2006. Se pretende indagar sobre la efectividad de la política fiscal en términos de la magnitud y longitud de los multiplicadores fiscales sobre estas dos variables. Para ello, se utiliza un modelo VAR con información trimestral de gastos e impuestos del gobierno nacional, PIB real y el coeficiente Gini. Los resultados encontrados sugieren la escasa efectividad de la política fiscal para reducir la inequidad del ingreso, dada la baja magnitud de los multiplicadores fiscales y su corta longitud.
- English
This paper aims to demonstrate empirically the effects of fiscal policy on output and income distribution in Colombia for the period 1990-2006. It sought to establish whether fiscal policy has been effective in achieving stabilization of the economy and reducing distributive gaps. In order to carry out it uses a VAR model with quarterly reporting of spending and taxes from national government, real GDP and the Gini coefficient. This issue is relevant for at least two reasons. First, there appears to be no consensus among economist about the magnitude and the sign of the effects of fiscal policy, which is a good opportunity to provide evidence, marginally, on the subject for a developing country. Secondly, fiscal policy has been viewed as a good instrument to directly affect both in economic cycle as the inequality. Therefore, the inclusion of this latter variable in these models is a valuable manner to assess fiscal policy both from standpoint of their effectiveness in accomplishing this objective as to establish which instruments achieve this objective better.
