Long term dynamics of energy systems: : The Italian case

• Autores: Paolo Vestrucci, Serena Schiavi, Carlo Maria Orlandelli
• Localización: Technological Forecasting and Social Change, ISSN-e 1873-5509, Vol. 96, Nº. 1, 2015, págs. 266-276
• Idioma: inglés
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• Resumen

  • This paper analyses the dynamics of the Italian energy system, considering a long period of time: 1861–2010. The worldwide context is considered too, for the sake of comparison and in order to have a general framework. The aim is to uncover and characterize the mechanisms governing primary energy substitutions. The logistic replacement model is used, following the IIASA approach. Some characteristics of energy substitutions – such as penetration regular patterns, great inertia, de-carbonization – are verified, as well as some features not explained by the model — such as the coal resistance during the last few decades. Some particular aspects of the Italian system are highlighted; in particular – although Italy does not have nuclear energy production – according to the model it can be considered a country with an appreciable nuclear energy contribution to national consumption.