Resumen de Testing the limits of regional climate analogue studies: An Australian example
Jon Kellett, Cathryn Hamilton, David Ness, Stephen Pullen
Using temporal or spatial analogues is a well developed technique for comparative studies that can shed light on past environments or inform changes in practice by reference to analogue locations. Recently, studies have begun to employ analogue techniques to inform on future conditions under climate change. This paper explores the breadth of application of analogue approaches and seeks to question whether there are the limits to the way in which the technique can be applied. We consider the case of policy in a wide range of land use relevant factors, using case studies of three Australian states. The analysis examines whether existing policy in land use planning, housing, infrastructure, health and ecological services in analogue communities can inform future policy in target communities, so as to fast track their policy development as climate changes. We highlight a number of situations where evidence supports the argument but we conclude that, over the full spectrum of policy, there is insufficient evidence to suggest that analogue approaches are valuable as a policy development tool. The paper outlines the reasons why the approach is limited in the case of land use policy.
