The calm before the storm

• Autores: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Gregory F. Treverton
• Localización: Foreign Affairs, ISSN 0015-7120, Vol. 94, Nº. 1, 2015, págs. 11-12
• Idioma: inglés
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• Resumen

  • Instead of trying to predict "Black Swan" events such as coups or crises, forecasters should look at how political systems handle disorder. The best indicator of a country�s future trajectory is not a lengthy past stability but recent moderate volatility.