Axiomatic foundation and a structured process for developing firm-specific Intuitive Logics scenarios

• Autores: Shardul Phadnis, Chris Caplice, Mahender Singh, Yossi Sheffi
• Localización: Technological Forecasting and Social Change, ISSN-e 1873-5509, Vol. 88, Nº. 1, 2014, págs. 122-139
• Idioma: inglés
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• Resumen

  • This paper presents an axiomatic foundation for developing firm-specific scenarios in the tradition of the Intuitive Logics School (ILS), a structured scenario creation process built on that foundation, and its application to a case. The ILS outlines a high-level scenario-development process, but without a theoretical basis or prescriptions for executing different process steps. The lack of theoretical grounding has led to a proliferation of methods for developing scenarios, without any basis for comparing them. We fill this gap in the literature by articulating a set of axioms characterizing the nature of human knowledge about the business environment and scenarios as depictions of that environment. Using this theoretical foundation, we devise a structured process for developing scenarios. Finally, we demonstrate this process by applying it to develop four scenarios for a firm in the U.S. healthcare sector.