The prioritization and verification of IT emerging technologies using an analytic hierarchy process and cluster analysis

• Autores: Sangjae Lee, Wanki Kim, Young Min Kim, Hyoung Yong Lee, Kyong Joo Oh
• Localización: Technological Forecasting and Social Change, ISSN-e 1873-5509, Vol. 87, Nº. 1, 2014, págs. 292-304
• Idioma: inglés
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• Resumen

  • This study proposes a quantitative technology forecasting method for prioritizing investments using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) analysis and a verification process to evaluate the prioritization using factor analysis and cluster analysis of the factor scores.

    To verify the prioritization process of emerging technologies, this study completed two surveys of experts. Cluster analysis of the factor scores based on the second survey is used to verify the results of prioritization using AHP analysis based on the first survey. The results suggest high hit ratios between the prioritization using AHP analysis and the cluster analysis of factor scores. This confirms that the AHP method is significantly reliable as a method for selecting promising electronic device technologies. As the emerging technology market is more changeable than ever before, the study's prioritization and verification process provides a relevantly robust solution.