Beyond the veil � The real value of Foresight

• Autores: Effie Amanatidou
• Localización: Technological Forecasting and Social Change, ISSN-e 1873-5509, Vol. 87, Nº. 1, 2014, págs. 274-291
• Idioma: inglés
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• Resumen

  • The wide application of foresight would benefit from a common assessment framework that hardly exists. This would require a higher level of reference, i.e. pursuing more generic goals. This is offered by the two concepts of �knowledge society� and �participatory governance�. The aim of the research is to develop an impact assessment framework of foresight programmes in developing more participatory �knowledge societies� beyond their specific aims.

    Research shows that the major impacts of foresight belong to three groups, i.e. in relation to knowledge, network creation, and promoting public engagement in policy-making. At the same time, the major features of modern societies are of three types, i.e. related to knowledge value, to innovation-driven growth and to consequences of a �risk society�. Thus, the relevant areas where foresight might contribute are: knowledge, networking, and coping with a �risk society�.

    The new framework is built on the features and pre-conditions of more participatory societies and draws upon existing evaluation approaches and concepts (�theory-based evaluation�, �knowledge value framework�, �behavioural� and �cognitive capacity additionality�) to tackle short-comings of earlier evaluation efforts. It is then tested in a case study that demonstrates its feasibility and comprehensiveness and further refines the assessment criteria it is based on.