An analysis of the changing social bases of America's political parties: 1952-2008

• Autores: Joshua N. Zingher
• Localización: Electoral Studies: An international Journal, ISSN 0261-3794, Vol. 35, 2014, págs. 272-282
• Idioma: inglés
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• Resumen

  • In this article I address two interrelated questions: have the group bases of the American political parties changed over time and what factors have lead to the observed changes? I determine social group memberships significantly influence individual partisanship with a multivariate analysis using 56 years of ANES data. I then measure how many votes each politically relevant social group contributed to the party coalitions in each presidential election from 1952 to 2008. I discuss how group contributions have changed over time and establish the demographic and behavioral causes of group contribution change. I find that the party coalitions have been restructured as a result of groups' changing voting behavior and the changing ratio of groups in the electorate.