Getting it (approximately) right (and center and left!): Reliability and uncertainty estimates for the comparative manifesto data

• Autores: Michael D. McDonald, Ian Budge
• Localización: Electoral Studies: An international Journal, ISSN 0261-3794, Vol. 35, 2014, págs. 67-77
• Idioma: inglés
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• Resumen

  • The extensive estimates of party policy preferences produced by the CMP (Comparative Manifesto Project, now MARPOR) have proved robust and valid over a wide variety of research applications. But all estimates carry some error. We demonstrate that one of the two existing assessments of non-systematic error in the CMP data strongly overstates their reliability while the other understates it, leaving much potential for mis-estimation. We develop a new method which extends classical test theory and directly estimates overall data reliability; reliabilities and standard errors of measurement for each party system; and standard errors of measurement for each data-point. These should facilitate use of the CMP policy scores which are usually the only ones available for extended party and policy research.