Resumen de Análisis de la deuda y el gasto público en el crecimiento económico de México, 1980-2012
Francisco Pérez Soto, Esther Figueroa Hernández, Lucila Godínez Montoya
The global scenario for 2012-2013 is characterized by slow growth of the global economy that threatens endure while several developed countries overcome the problems of over-indebtedness and unemployment and emerging countries do not remedy their spending patterns, increasing global demand. In 2013, the low growth scenario will be expressed by the persistent sluggishness of the global economy.
Because of this, the aim of the study was to analyze the impact of debt and public spending on economic growth in Mexico, 1980-2012. To achieve the goal three linear models were developed which were estimated using the statistical package Statistical Analysis System (SAS), by the Ordinar Least Squares (OLS) method. RGDP elasticity with respect to total public expenditure was 1.24% while for domestic demand it was - 0.35%. It was concluded that on the economic growth the variables with more influence were total public expenditure, inflation and domestic debt, which were highly significant, ie the most influential. For the case of variables interest and exchange rate were not significant and we conclude that this might be due to the quality of the information used.
