A quantitative risk assessment method based on population and exposure distributions using Australian air quality data

• Autores: Tom Beer, Paolo F. Ricci
• Localización: Environment international: a journal of environmental science, risk and health, ISSN 0160-4120, Vol. 25, Nº. 6, 1999, pág. 887
• Idioma: inglés
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• Resumen

  • This paper develops a practical probabilistic method for assessing aggregate population health risks from different types of population exposures. The method consists of calculating the product of two functions: a population-weighted distribution of concentrations and a concentration-response distribution. This operation yields the corresponding aggregated health-risk distribution function. The method can use alternative exposure-response distributions and populations-specific exposure patterns, depending on the context of the assessment. A deterministic sensitivity analysis is included in the methodological aspects of this research. The distributions of concentrations are generated by combining area-specific population densities with atmospheric concentrations for each of the areas where exposure to air pollutants occurs. The exposure-response functions are developed from the literature. The method is exemplified using alternative exposure probabilities to carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, particulate matter (PM10), and exposure-response models developed specifically for these pollutants for assessing health risks, and applied to data from a number of Australian cities. The results, which hold when the functions are monotonic, show single maximum per pollutant, regardless of the choice of exposure and exposure-response distribution. Although those maxima are often below the Australian Air Pollution Standards, there are instances when this is not the case.