Fostering delayed retirement in Spain: a micro simulation exercise using the MCVL

• Autores: Ignacio Moral Arce, Concepció Patxot Cardoner, Guadalupe Souto Nieves
• Localización: XVII Encuentro de Economía Pública: políticas públicas ante la crisis, 2010, pág. 68
• Idioma: inglés
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• Resumen

  • I this paper the scope for measures delaying retirement age in Spain is analysed using the continuous working life sample published by the Social Security administration (MCVL). In particular, retirement probabilities of workers are estimated using a logit model, controlling for their possibilities to opt for early retirement.

    Overall our results indicate that, despite our attempt to focus on the relevant subsample, the incentive measures explicitly ruled by legislation have a small impact on the retirement decision, being this mostly determined by age. When age is specified as single year dummy it captures most of the significance but the option value turns still significance, hence there is some room for policy simulations.

    According to the focus of our analysis we first simulate the impact of the last reform introduced in Spain fostering delayed retirement finding a small impact. This is not surprising, given that it affects a small share of pensioners and it is a marginal change. Other measures often discussed in order to foster the bismarkian nature of the system are also analyzed. Despite its impact on pension rights the response of retirement probability is also limited.

    The main conclusion of the analysis is that only a direct increase in the normal retirement age would produce a substantial increase in retirement age. The simulation shows how the small impact of the change in incentive is increase when age dummies are switched accordingly.