Resumen de Predicción estacional de la variabilidad intra-estacional de la precipitación del Monzón de África Occidental
Luis Ricardo Lage Rodrigues, Javier García Serrano, Francisco J. Doblas Reyes
In this paper we review the main modes of variability associated with the West African monsoon (WAM) rainfall as predicted by three operational forecast systems: the ECMWF System 4 (S4), NCEP CFSv2 (CFSv2), and the Météo-France System 3 (MF3). A new methodology to assess the interannual variations of the WAM rainfall is considered, where monthly rainfall is averaged zonally over 10ºW-10ºE before estimating the two leading modes of WAM rainfall variability. It is found that S4 is skilful when predicting the two leading modes of WAM rainfall variability, MF3 is skilful when predicting the Guinean regime, and CFSv2 has no skill when predicting the Guinean regime and low correlation when predicting the Sahelian regime.
