Predicting On-Road Assessment Pass and Fail Outcomes in Older Drivers with Cognitive Impairment Using a Battery of Computerized Sensory-Motor and Cognitive Tests

• Autores: Petra A. Hoggarth, Carrie R. H. Innes, John C. Dalrymple Alford, Richard D. Jones
• Localización: Journal of the American Geriatrics Society, ISSN 0002-8614, Vol. 61, Nº. 12, 2013, págs. 2192-2198
• Idioma: inglés
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• Resumen

  • Objectives: To generate a robust model of computerized sensory-motor and cognitive test performance to predict on-road driving assessment outcomes in older persons with diagnosed or suspected cognitive impairment.

    Design: A logistic regression model classified pass�fail outcomes of a blinded on-road driving assessment. Generalizability of the model was tested using leave-one-out cross-validation.

    Setting: Three specialist clinics in New Zealand.

    Participants: Drivers (n = 279; mean age 78.4, 65% male) with diagnosed or suspected dementia, mild cognitive impairment, unspecified cognitive impairment, or memory problems referred for a medical driving assessment.

    Measurements: A computerized battery of sensory-motor and cognitive tests and an on-road medical driving assessment.

    Results: One hundred fifty-five participants (55.5%) received an on-road fail score. Binary logistic regression correctly classified 75.6% of the sample into on-road pass and fail groups. The cross-validation indicated accuracy of the model of 72.0% with sensitivity for detecting on-road fails of 73.5%, specificity of 70.2%, positive predictive value of 75.5%, and negative predictive value of 68%.

    Conclusion: The off-road assessment prediction model resulted in a substantial number of people who were assessed as likely to fail despite passing an on-road assessment and vice versa. Thus, despite a large multicenter sample, the use of off-road tests previously found to be useful in other older populations, and a carefully constructed and tested prediction model, off-road measures have yet to be found that are sufficiently accurate to allow acceptable determination of on-road driving safety of cognitively impaired older drivers.