Resumen de Forecasting Travel Patterns Using Palmore's Analysis

Lori Pennington-Gray, Deborah Kerstetter, Rod Warnick

• The purpose of this study was to introduce Palmore's (1478) method of cohort analysis and illustrate its potential application to tourism forecasting. Results suggested that (a) older cohorts participate less frequently in international travel than younger cohorts, (b) decrease in participation continues as one ages, and (c) changes in travel behavior are due primarily to period effects. With respect to the impact these findings may have on the tourism industry, the results suggest that marketers should monitor the aggregate changes taking place within targeted cohorts, and strategic planning should not he based on an assessment of differences between cohorts at one point in time.