Resumen de Le mood, un nouvel instrument au service de l'analyse dynamique des opinions: Application aux évolutions de la xénophobie en France (1990-2009)
James A. Stimson, Vincent Tiberj, Cyrille Thiébaut
T his article serves two main objectives. Firstly, we present a statistical method designed to track long-term public opinion trends and cope with incomplete and irregular series breakdowns, an enduring problem in this field of research. This method, invented by James Stimson in the US, is widely associated with the concept of the “ public policy mood ” . Secondly, based on this method we have constructed a “ tolerance-towards-immigra- tion ” mood index based on CNCDH (French National Consultative Commission on Human Rights) barometer survey and tried to track its development over time. It turns out that the French public grew increasingly tolerant towards immigrants during the period from 1990 to 2009, and that trend cannot be explained solely by generational renewal. We argue that prejudice levels now obey the thermostatic theory and vary according to the current administration's political leanings.
