Resumen de Shanghai's High-End Hotel Overcapacity in 2011 and Beyond: How Bad it Could be and Why?
Disregarding the oversupplied market, Shanghai's high-end hotel sector has been experiencing rapid expansions in past two decades, especially after the city won the bid to host the World Exposition 2010. New projects are in the pipeline and more developments are expected in the future. This study attempts to identify the magnitude of overcapacity for Shanghai's four- and five-star hotels in the year of 2011 by forecasting monthly market demand and comparing the forecasts with expected monthly capacity. It also provides forecasted monthly demand on Shanghai's four- and five-star hotels in the years of 2012 and 2013 to be used as references by stakeholders of the industry. In addition, this study attempts to provide the reasons behind the overcapacity and provides stakeholders with suggestions regarding future hotel developments in Shanghai. Box-Jenkins procedure was used and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models were developed for the forecasting.
