Resumen de Seasonal Causality in the Energy Commodities

Fernanda Díaz Rodríguez, Javier Población

• The reason why we observe that the price evolution of some energy commodities follows a seasonal cycle is because their supply does not keep up the pace with their demand in certain weather seasons�when demand is exceptionally more elastic than supply. This paper is aimed on assessing the seasonal component of commodities present in their demand and prices. We highlight the fact that, most of the time, prices do not share the same seasonal cycle of demand arising a seasonal causality relationship between them. In the long-run, seasonal demand causes prices� seasonality as it is expected. But in the short-run, we find out that it is prices that anticipate (Granger-cause) the seasonal demand of commodities