From polls to votes to seats: Forecasting the 2010 British general election

• Autores: Stephen D. Fisher, Robert Ford, Will Jennings, Mark Pickup, Christopher Wlezien
• Localización: Electoral Studies: An international Journal, ISSN 0261-3794, Vol. 30, Nº. 2, 2011, págs. 250-257
• Idioma: inglés
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• Dialnet Métricas: 1 Cita
• Resumen

  • This paper outlines and discusses techniques for three stages in forecasting parliamentary seats from British opinion polls: adjusting and aggregating published vote-intention figures from across different polls; forecasting how public opinion might change before election day; and predicting the seat totals from the forecasted election-day vote shares. Specifically, we consider a state-space model for opinion polls which correct for house effects and other sources of survey error, the estimation of the historical relationship between polls and the election-day share of the vote, and a probabilistic approach to predicting the winner in each constituency.