Methodologies of election forecasting: Calling the 2010 UK "hung parliament"

• Autores: Rachel Gibson, Michael Steven Lewis-Beck
• Localización: Electoral Studies: An international Journal, ISSN 0261-3794, Vol. 30, Nº. 2, 2011, págs. 247-249
• Idioma: inglés
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• Resumen

  • Election forecasting has experienced considerable growth as a subfield within political science. Research work on United Kingdom elections has been cutting edge here. The recent 2010 general election afforded the opportunity for a trial of different forecasting methodologies. These efforts are showcased in this volume, and include standard, and not-so-standard, statistical models. Overall, these models perform well, foreseeing the unprecedented outcome of a “hung parliament”, as most pollsters and pundits did not. Moreover, they achieved this accuracy with forecasts well in advance of the election itself.