International arrivalsin the Canary Islands: persistence, long memory, seasonality and other implicit dynamics

Luis Alberiko Gil Alaña ^[1]
1. [1] Universidad de Navarra
  
  Universidad de Navarra
  
  Pamplona, España
Localización: Tourism economics: the business and finance of tourism and recreation, ISSN 1354-8166, Vol. 16, Nº. 2, 2010 (Ejemplar dedicado a: New Advances in Tourism Economics), págs. 287-302
Idioma: inglés
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Resumen
- This study models international monthly arrivals in the Canary Islands using different time-series approaches that enable an examination of the degree of persistence of the series. The author focuses on long memory processes at the long-run or zero frequency, at the seasonal frequencies and at both simultaneously. A forecasting experiment is also conducted and the results indicate that the model with two differencing parameters seems to be the most adequate specification for this series, being non-stationary with respect to the two components and mean reverting with respect to the seasonal structure.