Resumen de Forescasting British tourist arrivals in the Balearic Island using meterological variables

Marcos Alvarez Díaz, Jaume Rosselló Nadal

• This paper investigates the possibility of improving the predictive ability of a tourism demand model with meteorological explanatory variables. The authors use as a case study the monthly British tourism demand for the Balearic Islands (Spain). For this purpose, a transfer function model and causal artificial neural network are fitted. The results are compared with those obtained by non-causal methods: an ARIMA model and an autoregressive neural network.

  The results indicate that incorporating meteorological variables can increase predictive power, although the most accurate prediction is obtained using a non-causal model - specifically, an autoregressive neural network.