Resumen de Evaluating the impact on labour and pension wealth of public policies: an assesment of the changing italian pension system
Pietro A. Vagliasindi, Marzia Romanelli
The evolution of the Italian pension system, and in particular changes in early retirement provisions along the transition path and due to new discretionary measure, may differently affect retirement behaviours, with significant economic consequences in the short run on income distribution and poverty as well as on the long run on wealth from pension and labour. In this paper we present new evidence on the effect of the recent seniority pension reform, considering the evolution using a dynamic aging approach. Our dynamic microsimulation model - calibrated to replicate the main demographic and economic features and retirement dynamics of the Italian economy - is used to examine behavioural changes along proposed pension reform paths.
In particular, we compare, under two �retirement behavioural rules� (individual and family-bounded rationality), how changes in the current transition path (B) due to the recent seniority pensions reform (M) can affect the trend of inequality and poverty among pensioners and the distribution of human capital (the distribution of wealth from actual wages and expected pensions) analyse intragenerational and intergenerational issues.
The impact of policy M may slow down the increase in income concentration and poverty, due to the transition to the defined contribution regime. In particular, the rise of the legal age seems to be particularly effective under family bounded rationality since it forces workers (especially females) to postpone retirement, rising in this way their pension annuity.
