Estimation of outbound Italian tourism demand: a monthly dynamic EC-LAIDS model

• Isabel Cortés-Jiménez ^[1] ; Ramesh Durbarry ^[2] ; Manuela Pulina ^[3]
  1. [1] University of Nottingham

     University of Nottingham

     Reino Unido

     
  2. [2] University of Technology, Mauritius

     University of Technology, Mauritius

     Mauricio

     
  3. [3] University of Sassari

     University of Sassari

     Sassari, Italia

     

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• Localización: Tourism economics: the business and finance of tourism and recreation, ISSN 1354-8166, Vol. 15, Nº. Extra 3, 2009 (Ejemplar dedicado a: Modern approaches in tourism economics and econometrics), págs. 547-565
• Idioma: inglés
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• Dialnet Métricas: 3 Citas
• Resumen

  • An almost ideal demand system with monthly frequency, in both long-run and dynamic forms, is used to quantify the responsiveness of Italian tourism demand to changes in relative prices, exchange rates, expenditure and unexpected one-off events in four main European destinations. Short-term elasticities, which are crucial for policies regarding own price, as well as cross prices and expenditure elasticities are derived from the dynamic model. It is also found that the dynamic model outperforms the long-run model in forecasting accuracy. This paper provides useful information for policymakers to maintain high market shares of Italian tourism demand.