Resumen de Influência da Oscilaçao do Atlântico Norte no clima do continente europeu e no caudal dos rios ibéricos atlânticos

Timothy J. Osborn, Joao Corte-Real, Ricardo Trigo

• English

  The impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the European Climate and river flow of three major iberian rivers - The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the most dominant mode of atmospheric circulation variability over the entire Northern Hemisphere (NH) and has recently been shown to be related to climate over large regions of the NH, in particular, over the European and North American continents. Here, a multivariable analysis of the influence of the NAO on the climate of the North Atlantic and European sectors is presented using the 40 year (1958-97) re-analysis data set from National Centre for Environmental Prediction. Using high and low NAO index composites, anomaly fields of climate variables are then interpreted based on physical mechanisms associated with the anomalous mean flow (characterised by the surface wind field) and the anomalous eddy activity (characterised by the surface vorticity and the 500 hPa storm track fields). It is shown that NAO-related temperature patterns are mainly controlled by the advection of heat by the anomalous mean flow. However, asymmetries between minimum and maximum temperatures, and more significantly, between positive and negative phases of NAO imply the importance of a different mechanism, namely the modulation of short wave and long wave radiation by cloud cover variations associated with the NAO. Furthermore, NAO influence over two different precipitation-related variables, namely, precipitation rate and precipitable water display different patterns. Precipitable water is shown to be strongly related to the corresponding anomaly fields of temperature while precipitation rate appears to be controlled by the surface vorticity field and associated strength of the tropospheric synoptic activity. Finally, we have assessed the impact of the NAO on winter river flow regimes for several different Portuguese rivers, including the three main international Iberian rivers, the Douro (north), the Tagus (centre) and the Guadiana (south). Results show that the large inter-annual variability of flow of these three rivers is largely modulated by the NAO. Such modulation, associated with the recent positive trend of the NAO index, might implicate a significant decrease of the available flow. This reduction can represent an important hazard for the Portuguese economy due to its negative impact in agricultural yield and hydroelectric power production.

• português

  A Oscilação do Atlântico Norte (NAO, North Atlantic Oscillation) representa o principal modo de variabilidade da circulação atmosférica no Hemisfério Norte. Este trabalho pretende estudar a influência deste importante modo de circulação no clima do Atlântico Norte incluindo o continente Europeu. Para este efeito utilizam-se os 40 anos (1958-97) de dados provenientes das reanálises do NCEP (National Centre for Environmental Prediction). Os campos de anomalias das diferentes variáveis climáticas são então interpretados com base em diferentes mecanismos físicos (ventos, vorticidade, sistemas depressionários, etc). O campo das anomalias de temperatura máxima e mínima são controlados pela advecção de calor pelo campo médio dos ventos. No entanto, existem assimetrias entre os campos de temperatura máxima e mínima e também entre as fases positiva e negativa da NAO que só podem ser explicadas em termos de balanço radiativo e cobertura nebulosa. O impacto da NAO nos campos da água precipitável e da taxa de precipitação é bastante diferente, sendo o primeiro controlado pelo campo das anomalias da temperatura e o segundo pelo campo das anomalias da vorticidade. O importante papel da nebulosidade nas diferentes fases da NAO é realçado. Finalmente, analisou-se o impacto da NAO no regime de três rios internacionais Ibéricos, o Douro, o Tejo e o Guadiana. Os resultados confirmam que o caudal destes rios é, em grande medida, modelado pela fase da NAO. Este controlo exercido pela NAO na variabilidade interanual do caudal dos rios portugueses é de grande importância económica dada a dependência de Portugal da energia eléctrica de origem hídrica.