Resumen de Export led-growth and balance of payments constrained: new formalization applied to Cuban commercial regimes since 1960
David Matesanz Gómez, Guadalupe Fugarolas Álvarez-Ude, Isis Mañalich Gálvez
This paper investigates the casual relationships between the current account and the economic growth during different commercial policy regimes in Cuban economy spanning over the period 1960 to 2004. We formalize the so called augmented Export ledgrowth hypothesis in the well-established framework of the Thirlwall´s balance of payments approach. By using Granger causality and VAR modelling, we find causality running from imports to economic growth and evidence of balance of payments constraint economic growth path in most of the commercial periods we have analysed. Our demand formalization takes into account for indirect effects on the links between exports and growth modelling causality in a novel fashion in the empirical literature.
