Modeling an forescasting the volatility of long-satay tourism arrivals

• Troy Lorde ^[1] ; Wiston Moore ^[1]
  1. [1] University of the West Indies System

     University of the West Indies System

     Jamaica

     
• Localización: Tourism analysis, ISSN 1083-5423, Vol. 13, Nº. 1, 2008, págs. 43-51
• Idioma: inglés
• Texto completo no disponible (Saber más ...)
• Resumen

  • Volatility is an important characteristic of most tourist economies. Fluctuations in tourist arrivals can occur due to unanticipated events, such as natural disasters, crime, the threat of terrorism, and business cycles in key source markets. This study exploits recent time series modeling techniques to model and forecast the volatility in monthly international tourist arrivals to Barbados. The results show models that allow mean volatility to change over time tend to have the best forecasting performance. However, relatively simple models, such as the RiskMetrics approach, can also produce predictions that are statistically at least as good as more complex models.