The effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on tourism in Africa

• Robert Mudida ^[2] ; Luis A Gil-Alana ^[1]
  1. [1] Universidad de Navarra

     Universidad de Navarra

     Pamplona, España

     
  2. [2] Central Bank of Kenya, Kenya
• Localización: Tourism economics: the business and finance of tourism and recreation, ISSN 1354-8166, Vol. 32, Nº. 3 (May), 2026, págs. 638-652
• Idioma: inglés
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• Resumen

  • This article focuses on the effect of Covid-19 on tourism in four Eastern African countries and two Southern African countries. Fractional integration is used to analyze the effects of shocks. Results for East Africa indicate that if we use data before Covid19, the series are mean-reverting and the degree of persistence moves from low values in Mauritius and Seychelles to the highest in Eswatini. However, including data for the Covid-19 an increase in the degree of persistence is observed, and the unit root hypothesis cannot be rejected for Eswatini, Mauritius Burundi or Seychelles. For South Africa, evidence of unit roots was found in all cases. This implies that these economies need to increase their economic diversification to reduce excessive reliance on tourism where shocks tend to persist. Only Kenya displays mean reversion and the development of innovative tourism products in Kenya can make tourism an even more important pillar of the economy.