Multi-criteria analysis to compare multiple risks associated with management alternatives in planted forests

• Margot Régolini ^[5] ; Ander Arias-González ^[6] ; Manuela Branco ^[1] ; Céline Meredieu ^[7] ; Hervé Jactel ^[5] ; Alejandro Cantero ^[8] ; Amélie Castro ^[9] ; Jean-Yves Fraysse ^[2] ; Barry Gardiner ^[3] ; Andrea Hevia ^[4] ; Francisco-José Lario ^[10] ; Catherine Steffy-Pater ^[3] ; Roque Rodríguez-Soalleiro ^[11] ; Paula Soares ^[1] ; Christophe Orazio ^[3]
  1. [1] Universidade de Lisboa

     Universidade de Lisboa

     Socorro, Portugal

     
  2. [2] Institut Technologique Forêt Cellulose Bois-construction Ameublement

     Institut Technologique Forêt Cellulose Bois-construction Ameublement

     París, Francia

     
  3. [3] European Forest Institute

     European Forest Institute

     Joensuu, Finlandia

     
  4. [4] Universidad de Huelva

     Universidad de Huelva

     Huelva, España

     
  5. [5] Univ. Bordeaux
  6. [6] NEIKER-Tecnalia
  7. [7] INRAE, UEFP
  8. [8] HAZI Foundation
  9. [9] CRPF Nouvelle-Aquitaine
  10. [10] TRAGSA
  11. [11] Univ. Santiago de Compostela

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• Localización: Forest systems, ISSN 2171-5068, ISSN-e 2171-9845, Vol. 29, Nº. 2, 2020, págs. 1-17
• Idioma: inglés
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• Resumen

  • Aim of study: Adaptation of silviculture in planted forest may help to mitigate damage due to biotic and abiotic hazards. However, compromises have to be found because it is not possible to minimize the risk from all hazards through application of a single forest management approach. The objective of this study was to improve a multi-criteria risk analysis (MCRA) method that makes it possible to rank forest management alternatives (FMAs) according to multiple risks.

    Material and Methods: We defined eight FMAs for maritime pine forests in France, Spain and Portugal. We used as the definition of risk the combination of hazard, susceptibility and exposure. Hazard level was estimated using archive data on occurrence and severity of damaging agents over the last few decades. Forest susceptibility to hazards was evaluated by experts who scored the effect on stand resistance of eleven silvicultural operations characterizing each FMA. Exposure was estimated as value at stake, which combined forest standing volume, simulated with forest growth models, and wood prices.

    Main Results: Using the PROMETHEE algorithm, we found that the overall ranking of FMAs was consistent across all countries, with short rotation plantations to produce pulpwood or energy wood were the least at risk. The ranking was mainly driven by forest values at stake. We found that by improving the accuracy of forest values exposed to damage, based on growth models and representative wood prices, the MCRA outcomes were more useful and realistic.

    Research highlights: Our methodology provides a relevant framework to design FMAs that would minimize risks while maintaining income.