Resumen de Wich future for semiarid socioecological system? anticipatory co-learning for climate change adaptation in northern nicaragua
In semi-arid corridor of Central America region, very intensive and prolonged drought events, induced by climate change, combined with progressive land degradation processes may push drylands systems to cross biophysical thresholds. Moreover, high sensitivity of local economies to hazard-specific risks and low collective capacity to propose anticipatory development policies make rural systems very vulnerable to environmental change. In this context, additional stresses may have huge consequence in creating a downward spiral towards losses of key functions of ecosystem, persistent deprivation and chronic poverty. Despite the relevance of studying complex dynamics of vulnerability in such context, the Central America dryland systems are largely unexplored.
Indeed, the unpredictable and non linear responses to future change of drylands systems imply that researchers, practitioners, interest groups and authorities have to work together to more effectively identify ways to understand how multiple and multi-scale drivers interact, reinforcing or balancing vulnerability. However, existing methodological approaches rarely explore vulnerability and adaptability as a multidimensional process. Moreover, there is a lack of comprehensive studies that integrate questions of values plurality as well as issues of agency, power and equity with systems analysis and resilience theories. In addition, though vulnerability is a perceptive and conflictive issue, especially in high-risk and poverty stricken realities, local actors rarely participate, or derive results to manage resilience of the system and enhance their adaptability to changes. Recent researches, thus, advocate for a shift from fragmented and simple perspectives towards a more complex and comprehensive view of vulnerability, resilience and adaptability, derived from the theoretical and methodological cross-fertilization between natural and social science, as well as the integration of scientific and local knowledge. This dissertation makes a contribution to the emerging ground of research of anticipatory learning for adaptation and resilience in the context of climate change. The thesis builds on an in-depth case study of semi-arid socioecological systems in northern Nicaragua and focuses on understanding dynamics of rural changes and multidimensional vulnerability trends under multiple stressors. The aim is to explore plausible future and reflect, jointly with local stakeholders and policy makers, potential strategies for anticipatory adaptation.
The core of the thesis consists of three chapters that approach empirical questions. Chapter 1 explores local perceptions of processes of change and different values and perspectives that orient objectives, behaviour and networks of local stakeholders. Then, a multi-scale characterization of local farming systems and assessment of features of vulnerability at farm/household level is undertaken. Upgrading the (spatial and temporal) scale of observation, Chapter 2 presents a conceptual model for interpreting multiequilibrium dynamics in dryland agro-ecosystems, and analyzes the vulnerability versus resilience of the local socio-ecological system over the past 50 years. Farmer¿s strategies (short and long term) to cope with drought are investigated. Then, the chapter analyses components of four future socio-economic scenarios overlapped to a climatic scenario up to 2030 and the potential role of a bundle of alternative adaptive strategies across them. Chapter 3 focuses on agriculture intensification and pasture abandonment as one of the most remarkable change in rural space in the studied case. Divergent mental models may suggest multiple and multi-scale drivers of change, but is widely recognized the ecological process of bush encroachment acting in native dry pasturelands and the coupled effect of decisions of land management and climate change that directly drive the ecological shift. By engaging relevant stakeholders in modelling process, we link natural and human systems. Results from simulations and scenario analysis are used as heuristic for dialogue about trends of future vulnerability.
The empirical results suggest a general distinction among different ¿styles of farming¿. Those reflect different responses to their situation of vulnerability to climate change. Results propose to classify the types with regard to: i) differences in access to land ii) differences between strategies of land allocation, specifically simplification versus diversification, and land management, conventional versus agroecological, iii) differences between strategies of labour allocation, specifically familiar versus external labour use, iv) differences between flows of Energy and inputs, dependent from external versus selfsufficient, v) differences between monetary flows, . In general, for household types the objectives of decresing sensitivity and increasing capacity of adaptation (i.e. features of vulnerability) may involve more than food security or economic performance, and include such aspects as safeguarding genetic resources, self-sufficiency, equality of access to assets, especially work, and as improving social ties and territorial sense of belonging. Economic performance is interpreted in terms of minimization of risk of indebteness. In contrast, productivity and economic performance, interpreted in terms of profit and value added per unit of capital invested, are prioritized as objectives for enterprises. Both organic households and agro-ecological eco-touristic enterprise prioritize a multifunctional role of rural systems (e.g. job and social services provision, maintainance of ecological functions of subsystems and beauty of landscape).
From the exploration of the main socio-economic drivers of rural change in the area, the results show that they have to do with: 1) macroeconomic forces and uncertain versus controlled political and economic environments; 2) leadership, social capital and governance systems; 3) cultural changes and new roles of agriculture. In contrast to a negative scenario of bussiness as usual that will progress towards a marginalization of agriculture in a desert, three alternative scenarios were discussed. These reflect three salient discourses recognized in the area around present and future of the semi-arid rural system: technified mode of production (even under a ¿green¿ discourse), conservationist community-based future and conservation with development (multifunctional) future. The heuristic depiction of trends of vulnerability helps to visualize the chance for managing a less vulnerable system under conservation with development scenario. Then, modelling farms¿ metabolism and using socio-economic assumptions from scenarios helps to quantify socio-economic indicators of future vulnerability, while ecological modelling and simulation of vegetation transitions helped to quantify ecological indicators. Potential adaptive strategies are also proposed: 1) development of formal structures and associations linked across-scale, specifically those that can support responses to seasonal variability; 2) promotion of informal networks of engagement that may reinforce the capacity of local household/farm; 3) concrete technological solutions and management measures; 4) policies oriented to support diversification of rural economies and multifunctional roles of farming systems; 5) programmes to increase ability to perform autonomous actions and learn using new knowledge. The most important windows of opportunity for change are recognized in the social awareness of climate change and land degradation linkages, the presence of the University to create new shadow networks and available solutions as those suggested by organic smallscale agro-pastoral households and medium-size familiar value added, agro-ecological and eco-touristic enterprises.
The thesis also outlines a comprehensive analytical framework to facilitate the iterative participatory action-learning processes and adaptive decision making in practice. In resume, the framework pays particular attention to learning loops, nodes of reflection at individual scale and deliberative collective spaces, creative methods and tools and mechanisms for integrating local assumptions, worldviews and knowledge. The Chapter 4 analyses the lessons learned by the experience in the participatory and learning process compared to a similar process in UK. Results of the analysis reflect on if and how participation promotes learning at different tiers: 1) individual farmers, mainly leaders of their social groups; 2) local communities; 3) level of international research group and local technical staff. The comparison makes evidence that the anticipatory learning process: 1) structured stakeholders¿ thinking about the future and improved understanding of environmental changes; 2) helped researchers to respond to societal claim of including local (sometimes conflictive) voices in the process and to embrace uncertainty and surprises; 3) reinforced self-confidence and responsibility for action mainly among local farmers; 4) opened new spaces for negotiation and alliances. The two experiences show that the stakeholder¿s inclusiveness throughout the process, certain epistemological plurality, high degree of flexibility and sensitivity to context-dependent socio-cultural processes need to be considered by researchers who wish to enhance the adaptive capacity of the communities they work with. Nevertheless, power asymmetries at the sciencesociety interface need to be careful analysed and engaging with power differentials implies recognizing learning outcomes ¿ in this case adaptive responses ¿ as competitive. Finally, the analysis suggests that problems of re-scaling the process of learning and re-scaling proposals, by matching institutional and environmental management interventions, have to be clearly addressed. Further research may be oriented to respond to these open questions.
