Análisis de la serie de tiempo de la precipitación mensual y eventos de sequía extrema en el municipio de Carmo do Paranaíba/MG – Brasil.

• Autores: Luiz Antônio de Oliveira, Eduardo Petrucci
• Localización: Revista de Climatología, ISSN-e 1578-8768, Nº. 22, 2022, págs. 190-214
• Idioma: español
• Enlaces
  • Texto completo (pdf)
• Resumen
  • español

    Las sequías pluviométricas pueden ocurrir en cualquier región del planeta, independiente de su ritmo climático y los índices de sequías son capaces de estimar las características de eses fenómenos, determinando el inicio y término, bien como su perdurabilidad en el tiempo. Las series temporales son una importante herramienta estadística para extraer informaciones en datos pasados y realizar proyecciones a partir de esas informaciones.

  • English

    Rainfall droughts can occur in any region of the planet, regardless of its climatic rhythm, and drought indices are able to estimate the characteristics of these phenomena, determining the beginning and end, as well as their durability over time. Time series are an important statistical tool for extracting information from past data and making projections from this information. The objective of this study is to analyze the time series of monthly rainfall in the municipality of Carmo do Parana´ıba/MG, from 1942 to 2020, using the classical decomposition method and quantify the occurrence of extreme droughts through the Standardized Index of Pluviometrical Droughts (IESP). The results showed that the model that produced the smallest errors was the additive, with a strong seasonal influence in the first half of the year, with large irregularities in the period between December and April, causing a shortening of the rainy season in that municipality. Regarding extreme droughts, 24 occurrences were identified from 1942 to 2020, with greater magnitude and durability in the 1950s when compared to other decades.