Implications of the Ukraine Crisis for the Middle East

• Eduard Soler i Lecha ^[1] ; Eckart Woertz ^[2]
  1. [1] Research Coordinator, CIDOB
  2. [2] Senior Research Fellow, CIDOB
• Localización: Notes internacionals CIDOB, ISSN-e 2013-4428, Nº. 87, 2014, págs. 1-5
• Idioma: inglés
• Enlaces
  • Texto completo
• Resumen

  • Above all the crisis raises concerns about Western security guarantees in a region that is characterized by turmoil, shifting alliances and a bid for regional hegemony with sectarian undertones by Saudi Arabia and Iran.

    If Russian oil exports declined because of sanctions or even worse military conflict, Middle East oil exporters might actually benefit. However, on the other hand, high oil prices are bad news for the non-exporter countries of the regions.

    Any escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian stand off would increase the value of North African gas supplies for European energy security.

    Israel is set to become a major gas exporter after discovery of two large gas fields and could be an interesting new supply source of gas exports from the region Moscow will likely be more supportive of Bashar Al-Assad, who has applauded Russian policies in Ukraine.

    The Ukrainian crisis will likely strengthen the positions of the Egyptian armed forces. Putin has openly supported General Sisi’s bid to run for President.

    Turkey’s foreign affairs minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, was one of the first foreign affairs ministers to visit Kyiv when the crisis broke and since then there have been regular contacts with Tatar leaders.

    The way in which the Ukrainian crisis will be resolved will also send a message to those who are in charge of the nuclear talks in Teheran. A toothless response by the US and the EU can offer arguments to hardliners in Iran.