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Resumen de Riesgo sísmico de edificaciones en términos de pérdidas económicas mediante integración de costos de reparación de componentes

Luis Eduardo Yamín Lacouture

  • The probabilistic seismic risk assessment in terms of economic losses for building portfolios aims at the estimation of the probability distribution functions of losses. This can be done for a specific seismic event (deterministic ) or for a set of stochastic events which represent the seismic hazard of a particular geographic zone (probabilistic). For this, it is required the seismic hazard assessment, the definition and characterization of the building portfolio and the estimation of the expected economic losses for specific seismic intensities. Losses are then integrated for the different hazard scenarios and finally for the complete set of stochastic events. A consistent and rigorous methodological approach to evaluate economic losses in typical building constructions is proposed as a function of the seismic hazard intensity. The following features are included in order to adequately control all relevant variables: the selection of a set of seismic records which represent the seismological and geotechnical characteristics in the zone of analysis; the use of prototype building models integrally characterized; the evaluation of the seismic response of building structures through detailed non-linear dynamic analysis; the definition of a component based model potentially susceptible to damage with its corresponding fragility specification in terms of cost and time of repair; independent consideration of structural, non-structural and building content components; an integration methodological approach which adequately considers uncertainties for each one of the variables; and the possibility to consider practical aspects such as geographical variations, scale economy, special commercial conditions, minimum or total intervention costs and the consideration of the business interruption costs due to the time required to repair expected damages under different stochastic scenarios. The results of the proposed methodological approach are represented through specific vulnerability functions for each one of the building typologies. Those relate the expected economic losses and the corresponding uncertainty measure with the seismic intensity level. The integration of losses considers the uncertainties associated with the hazard assessment, the dynamic response of the model, the expected damage level for each one of the components and the corresponding repair cost and time. The proposed vulnerability functions are compared with similar results from other methodologies and are used in the probabilistic seismic risk assessment of hypothetical building portfolios. In order to illustrate the potential and type of results of the proposed methodological approach, vulnerability functions are evaluated for a series of building prototypes. Reinforced concrete moment resisting frames 2, 5 and 10 story high, for two seismic design levels (low and high) and different non-structural type of components (ductile and fragile) are simulated. Seismic risk parametric assessments in terms of economic losses are performed for hypothetical building portfolios and different geotechnical profile characterization (firm and soft soils) in Bogotá. A sensibility analysis of the risk results is performed for each one of the parameters that control the economic loss assessment model proposed. Final conclusions and recommendations for further research related to rigorous seismic risk assessment are summarized.


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